Monday, July 19, 2010


Oil Spill Map
(Release date 7/2/10 reprinted from NOAA)

Major Findings and Implications
Most of the South / West coast of Florida has a low probability, less than 1% for impact, but the Florida Keys, Miami and Fort Lauderdale areas have a greater probability (61% - 80%) due to the potential influence of the Loop Current.

A projected threat to the shoreline does not necessarily mean that oil will come ashore. It means that oil or streamers or tar balls are likely to be in the general vicinity (within 20 miles of the coast). Winds and currents will have to move the oil or tar balls onto the shore.

The longer it takes oil to travel, the more it will degrade, disperse, lose toxicity, and break into streamers and tar balls. For example, any oil that enters the Loop Current will take at least 8 to 12 days to reach the Florida Straits, but could take much longer. Over that time, the oil will degrade and disperse, and any shoreline impacts to Keys, southeast Florida or beyond would be in the form of scattered tar balls, not a large surface slick of oil.

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